Failure risk in post-earthquake evacuation and logistics in Padang City

Abstract

This study examines the challenges and risks in managing evacuations and distribution logistics after tsunamis triggered by earthquakes, focusing on Padang City. Key issues include inadequate evacuation routes, delayed information dissemination and inefficient logistical coordination, compounded by the city’s topography. Data were collected from 20 key informants, structured interviews and questionnaires involving stakeholders with direct operational experience in disaster response, such as the Regional Disaster Management Agency, the Transportation Office and the Social Affairs Office. The failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method identified and prioritised potential failure modes based on risk priority number (RPN) values. The analysis revealed that the most critical risks in evacuation include damaged evacuation routes, lack of public knowledge about safe routes and heavy traffic congestion. The most significant dangers for logistics were post-earthquake telephone network disruptions, long delivery times and vehicle capacity limitations. These risks were found to hinder practical response efforts significantly. The study recommends targeted mitigation strategies such as strengthening communication systems, improving evacuation route infrastructure and increasing preparedness among communities and authorities. These findings offer practical insights to enhance disaster risk reduction and emergency logistics planning in coastal cities vulnerable to tsunamis.

Contribution: Research addresses critical gaps in tsunami evacuation and logistics management by analysing risks using FMEA techniques. The study highlights gaps in infrastructure, social dynamics and policies on urban resilience and disaster risk reduction. By emphasising practical strategies to mitigate key risks such as communication breakdowns and logistics coordination, the study provides actionable insights to improve disaster preparedness and response.