It is critical to understand how households perceive temperature and rainfall changes in order to uncover locally available climate variability and adaptation options. The majority of key informant interviewers and FGD participants recognised that rainfall amount, timing and distribution in the study area had changed and varied over the 35-year period investigated. Farmers also stated that the length of the rainy season had changed. According to the findings, 95.8% of respondents noticed a drop in the number of rainy seasons, with late onset and early cessation (Table 2). Furthermore, 23.8% said the seasonal rainfall distribution was erratic. As a result, rainfall unpredictability could have serious effects for pastoralists’ livelihood. Various researches conducted in different locations of Ethiopia have yielded the same conclusion (Bewket 2012; Debela et al. 2019; Tagel & Van Der Veen 2013). Participants in the FGDs agreed that today’s interannual rainfall variability was high and that the start and duration of the rainy season had become unpredictable, making cropping and pastoral activities more difficult to plan and worsening the area’s already severe feed and water shortage.

In terms of temperature, 94.4% said that the study area’s temperature had risen (Table 3). Other studies covering different sections of Ethiopia (Deressa, Hassan & Claudia 2011; Berhanu & Beyene 2014) found that most Ethiopian farmers are aware that temperatures are rising.

Droughts have afflicted the district and the region in general at various times throughout history, and it is not a new occurrence for pastoral communities. The rain is likely to be more erratic than before, and drought periods are likely to occur more frequently now than before. Drought incidence was examined during the past 35 years, and the majority of respondents from both production systems thought that the drought incidence had become more frequent. Figure 2 shows that 78% of respondents reported that droughts occurred every 3 to 5 years, but 15% of households said that droughts only occur every 1 to 2 years. Furthermore, 7% of respondents stated that droughts occur every 6 to 10 years. According to comparable studies, drought is having an increasingly negative impact on the livelihoods of pastoral and agropastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia (Berhanu & Beyene 2014; Belay, Beyene & Manig 2015). Similarly, FGDs and key informants were asked about the situation of drought occurrence for the last three decades in the study area, and most of them indicated that high frequency of drought was experienced in recent years, which was not familiar before, and it has negative effects on the livelihoods of pastoralists and agropastoralists in the study area.

The findings revealed that rainfall in the district has a significant interannual variability (CV = 44.7%), suggesting that high rainfall variability could have a negative influence on livestock and crop productivity. The results of the evaluated meteorological data corroborated the respondents’ perceptions of rainfall variability. The result was supported by Tagel and Van Der Veen (2013), who reported that the increasing year-to-year variability of climate lowers agricultural production with corresponding negative effects on food security in the Tigray Region, northern Ethiopia. Moreover, the results indicated very high irregular distribution of annual rainfall (PCI = 21.4%) (Table 4). The present finding is supported by Fenta (2017), who indicated very high irregular distribution of seasonal and annual rainfall in the southern Afar Region.

The long-term annual rainfall had no significant changes for the observed period in the study area (Table 5). The perception of diminishing rainfall trends amongst respondents did not match the actual rainfall trends. This widely perceived decrease in rainfall amount could be because of a decrease in the number of rainy days over the long rainy season or because of higher evapotranspiration and greater moisture stress as a result of the rising temperatures. The result is consistent with Degefu and Bewket (2014) and Solomon et al. (2007), who reported nonsignificant trends in annual rainfall in the Omo-Gibe River Basin and at Jigjiga and Gode stations from 1997 to 2015, respectively.

In the study area, the Gu rainfall, which occurs from April to June, contributed the most to annual rainfall (46.4%) followed by Karan rainfall, which occurs from July to September, with a contribution of 28.8% to the total annual rainfall. Rainfall was lowest in Deyr season (15.5%), which starts in the month of October and ends in the month of December. The results indicated that the intraseasonal variability was very high for all rainfall seasons (Table 6), which could have an adverse effect on pastoral livelihood by affecting seasonal forage and water availability for their livestock and crop farming. The results of the analysed meteorological data corroborated the respondents’ perceptions of rainfall variability. This study corroborates the findings of recurring rainfall variability in Ethiopia’s tropical and subtropical regions by Viste, Diriba and Sorteberg (2013) and Arragaw and Woldeamlak (2017). Ajuang et al. (2016) detected significant interannual variability in precipitation over the past four decades in Kenya’s Upper Nyakach Division in equatorial eastern Africa.

The results of the Mann–Kendall statistical tests showed that there were nonsignificant trends during the observation period across all seasons of rainfall (Table 7). Actual seasonal rainfall trends did not match respondents’ perceptions of dwindling rainfall. The result is supported by Gbetibouo (2009), who reported a nonsignificant rainfall trend in large parts of Ethiopia. Similarly, the finding was supported by Yilma and Ulrich (2004), which stated no trend in the annual Kiremt and Belg rainfall totals and rainy days over central, northern and north-western Ethiopia in the period 1965–2002. The results from analysis of meteorological data imply that intraseasonal and annual rainfall variability and irregular distribution of rainfall across all seasons and years could have a disastrous effect on pastoral livelihoods.

The standardised anomalies of annual rainfall during the period 1983–2017 showed drier years (53% negative anomalies) (Figure 3). Rainfall with positive anomaly index values indicate above-average rainfall, whereas negative values indicate dry years with varied degrees of intensity. The results indicated that six droughts occurred in the study area from 1983 to 2017, in which one of them was a severe drought which occurred in 2017, whilst the other five were moderate droughts (1984, 1985, 1987, 2015 and 2016).

Temperature is another important climate variable that influences the climate of an area. The descriptive statistics, trend and variability of time series maximum, minimum and mean temperature data were analysed on seasonal and annual periods to understand and summarise the long-term temperature of the study area. The mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures between 1983 and 2017 were 14.5 °C (±0.8) and 29.6 °C (±0.5), respectively, with an average of 22.1 °C (Table 8).

The Mann–Kendall trend test result indicated that there was a significant increasing trend of annual mean and maximum temperature at a rate of 0.02 °C and 0.026 °C per year, respectively. However, the annual minimum temperature showed a nonsignificant increasing trend at a rate of 0.007 °C per year (Table 9). The actual temperature trends are consistent with the respondents’ perception of rising temperatures. Similar results were reported by Legesse, Ayele and Bewket (2013) and Arragaw and Woldeamlak (2017), who indicated that the annual mean and maximum increased in the central highlands of Ethiopia. The significant increased maximum temperature could stress livestock and the local communities and also cause higher evaporation from soil moisture, which could have adverse effects on crops and pasture growth. Similarly, Solomon et al. (2007) reported that significant increasing temperatures caused water losses via evapotranspiration in the eastern parts of Ethiopia.

The descriptive statistics presented in Table 10 show that the Gu season (April–June) was warmer than the other three seasons.

The Mann–Kendall trend test showed that there was a significant increasing trend of mean temperature in all seasons at a rate of 0.02 °C per season for the Gu and Jillal seasons and 0.03 °C for the Karan and Deyr seasons (Table 11). The Mann–Kendall trend test for the seasonal minimum temperature indicated significant increasing trends for Karan (July–September) and Deyr (October–December) seasons at a rate of 0.02 °C and 0.04 °C per year, respectively (Table 11). Similarly, the result for seasonal maximum temperature showed significant increasing trends in Gu (April–June) and Karan (July–September) seasons by 0.035 °C and 0.037 °C per season, respectively. This increased temperature could impose a challenge on the livelihood of the community, as the area is prone to recurrent drought that can adversely affect the forage and water availability. This result is supported by the reports of NMA (2007) in Ethiopia, which indicated that temperature has been increasing all over the country. Moreover, Hirons et al. (2010) also revealed that in Africa, in all seasons, the median temperature increased and lay between 3 °C and 4 °C, roughly 1.5 times the global. The increasing temperature trend caused higher evaporation of water bodies and soil moisture that had disastrous effects on the seasonal availability of pasture and water for livestock, which impacted the resilience of pastoralists in the Afar Region (Fenta 2017).

Local households complained that recurrent droughts, early cessation and late onset of rain, heavy and unseasoned rain and pests have caused crop failure. A majority of agropastoral households (93.7%) have experienced reduced crops because of climate-related shocks and stresses. Droughts and delays in the onset of rains have made the farmlands drier and more difficult to plough and caused stunted growth of crops and slow germination of seeds, resulting in early wilting of the crops and a decline in crop yield (or in some cases, a loss of the entire crop). Similar results by Melaku et al. (2017) and Tsegaye, Vedeld and Moe (2013) also showed that occurrences of droughts had led to crop failure in the Afar Region. In discussion, district agricultural office administrators, extension workers and focus group participants also pointed out that 5–7 years ago, the agropastoral villages were engaged in construction of nursery sites for seedling multiplication of multipurpose trees (pasture, medicinal plants and edible fruits). However, in recent years, because of shortage of rainfall and drying up of private and communal water ponds, these activities were not successful. In addition, crop yields (for example, sorghum and maize) have been decreasing in the study area.

Livestock has been an important asset of the pastoralists and agropastoralist in the study area. The major livestock species reared by the respondents were sheep, goats, camels, cattle and donkeys. However, the recurring droughts along with increased heat stress affected livestock holdings per household. About 81% of agropastoralists and 100% of the pastoralists felt climate change reduced their livestock numbers and productivity. The key informant interview participants also complained that animal mortality has been increasing because of shortage of pasture and diseases, especially during drought times. Many livestock owners were altogether obliged to use the same water sources for their animals to drink, and concentration of livestock triggered the spread of disease. They indicated that tick infestation, anthrax, sheep and goat pox and pneumonia were common diseases observed during the drought and at the beginning of the rainfall after drought in the study area. This result was in line with Ayal and Leal Filho (2017), who reported that the rising temperatures and droughts caused the shortage of water and pasture for livestock as well as the spread of livestock diseases. Similarly, a study conducted by Akerlof, Maibach and Fitzgerald (2013) reported that in dry land areas, livestock are becoming weaker and underweight as a result of a steady decline in pasture and water availability, exposing them to infections during the dry season.

According to the findings, recurrent droughts and unpredictable precipitation reduced crop and livestock production, resulting in increasing food insecurity and income loss. Food shortages were reported by the majority of agropastoral households (60.32%) and 97.5% of pastoralists because of livestock death and crop failure during droughts. Furthermore, climate-related shocks resulted in a loss of income for 81% of agropastoral households and 90% of pastoralists. This result corroborates the IPCC (2013) report, which stated that the impact of climate change in east Africa will increase the risk of food insecurity and the collapse of food systems, along with the risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income because of insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water, as well as decreased crop and livestock productivity, particularly for pastoralists with limited capital in arid and semi-arid areas. Similarly, Zenebe et al. (2011) found a decline in average incomes of rural farmers as a result of climate-related shocks, and Gebreegziabher et al. (2011) found a 30% loss of income in Ethiopian rural areas as a result of climate change and variability.